Dodgers free-agent outlook: What could J.D. Martinezs market look like?
The offseason is upon us and, with it, some decisions — for the Dodgers and for their pending free agents. Just as we did last year, we will break down some of the Dodgers hitting the open market and what that market should bring for them. We started this year with David Peralta. Next up: J.D. Martinez.
It was never hard to find J.D. Martinez. Odds were there was a bat in one hand and an iPad affixed to a tripod in the other. Hitting is his job description, and Martinez believes in work-intensive research. His routines are precise, from the batting cage time that forced the Dodgers to schedule their hitting with sign-up slots to the hundreds upon hundreds of swings he has recorded on that iPad.
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“I always say I had to teach myself how to hit,” Martinez said this summer. “I wasn’t born with a great swing. So it’s a little different for me.”
His tablet is a source of insight and joy for Martinez, down to an old headshot of his longtime friend and hitting instructor — Dodgers hitting coach Robert Van Scoyoc – that he uses as the display image for a chuckle or two. Often, Martinez had someone’s ear, discussing the art and the science behind generating so much success in the batter’s box.
“His passion for hitting can be infectious,” Van Scoyoc said this summer.
J.D. Martinez said he has reached the part of his career where he just wants to win. But where will he play in 2024? (Kevork Djansezian / Getty Images)Martinez came as advertised to Los Angeles. He was paid to hit and did so. Among hitters with at least 450 plate appearances this season, Martinez ranked 16th in wRC+, an all-encompassing offensive metric. He slugged his most home runs (33) since 2019 and drove in 103 runs. His bet on himself, taking a pay cut on a one-year, $10 million deal to reunite with familiar faces like Van Scoyoc and Mookie Betts, paid off. And the Dodgers were the beneficiaries.
Los Angeles plugged him into a middle-of-the-order long occupied by Justin Turner, another late-career success story, and at a cheaper cost. The fit was seamless, and Martinez proved to be one of the few productive pieces (.833 OPS) in the Dodgers’ lineup during their brief postseason trip against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
He showed there’s still thump in his bat, even at 36 years old.
This, all while dealing with a perplexing lower-body ailment that forced him onto the injured list and kept him in and out of the Dodgers’ lineup for much of the second half. The ailment left Martinez feeling like he couldn’t walk after the most severe flare-ups. Testing on his back and groin area didn’t provide a satisfying answer, though Martinez said the club was able to narrow down the source of the discomfort to a nerve that was being impacted on his tailbone. Martinez got through the rest of the regular season and postseason without issue, all while producing a 1.050 OPS upon his return from the IL.
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Clearly, a payday is coming his way.
The Dodgers’ need
The fit for Martinez’s return feels perfect on paper. The Dodgers still have a hole in the middle of the order. But they have other options they could cycle through the designated hitter role: Will Smith could log more at-bats and rest between starts behind the plate, and Max Muncy (should his option get picked up, as expected) saw his defense slip in the second half of the season. If the Dodgers commit to giving more extensive playing time to bat-first prospects like Miguel Vargas and Michael Busch, it would help to have that spot open.
Then, there’s the half-billion-dollar elephant in the room. The Dodgers will be in the Shohei Ohtani market, a pursuit that likely would come ahead of any potential reunion conversation with Martinez, particularly since carrying both on the same roster doesn’t seem feasible.
The market
Martinez and Ohtani are both ostensibly in the designated hitter market, but not really. Ohtani remains in a different stratosphere with his two-way skill set, age and expected payday. The market for DH-types is otherwise filled with late-career veterans like Turner (if he declines his $13.4 million player option and takes the $6.7 million buyout), Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Santana, Brandon Belt, Joey Votto, Michael Brantley, Adam Duvall and perhaps even Michael Conforto (a fellow Scott Boras client who is only 30 but is only a year removed from major shoulder trouble). Teoscar Hernández, who is 31, could play in this market as well.
It’s a market that Martinez should be at least near the top of. A multiyear deal seems like a strong possibility. Something that could hinder his market, however: The Dodgers can still give Martinez the qualifying offer (a one-year deal worth approximately $20.5 million), meaning whoever signed him would have to surrender a draft pick to Los Angeles. The Dodgers will have up to five days after the World Series to make that decision.
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Other teams that might be interested
“I’m in a part of my career that I just want to win,” Martinez said shortly before his first spring with the Dodgers, setting the tone for how he will view his next foray into free agency.
A return to the Red Sox? Maybe, if he views the club (which finished in last place in 2023) as pushing for contention under new leadership. Miami would make some sense for the Florida native after the Marlins’ surprise run to the postseason in 2023, though Jorge Soler (who logged 102 starts at DH for Miami) remains under contract. Postseason clubs (and fringe contenders) like Milwaukee (79 wRC+ from their designated hitters), Cincinnati (91), Seattle (92), Arizona (93) and the Cubs (97) all got below-average production from the position this last year.
Projected salary
It might come down to whether Martinez values years or average annual value more. Boras suggested to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal this spring that Martinez left about $6 million to $7 million on the table last year to sign with Los Angeles, and the raise he’s likely due will exceed that. If he gets the qualifying offer from the Dodgers, he likely would seek more than that on a one-year offer. A multiyear deal with a larger total guarantee could make sense, as well — or a chance to opt out and extract even more value if he matches his production again next season.
It’s fair to assume he won’t wait out the Ohtani market, but it’ll be intriguing to see what the rest of the players of his ilk get in this open market.
What should the Dodgers’ level of interest be?
Moderate to strong, if they aren’t feeling good about their odds of landing Ohtani. But if they’re indeed serious about heading into those waters, it’s hard to see a scenario where they are simultaneously heavy in negotiations to re-sign Martinez. As good a fit as Martinez has been, there are enough other issues and solutions out there that it would be at least moderately surprising if he re-signs.
(Photo of J.D. Martinez: Jayne Kamin-Oncea / USA Today)
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